The crash in the stock market has arrived finally

 

I told you that a crash in the stock market was about to arrive some weeks ago.

I repeated this concept in my last email, last week.

Finally, this crash has arrived.

Look at the following graphic.

 

S&P 500 stock index crash  updated on 21st of August 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This index has had lateral tops since the middle of February until the middle of August.

One long distribution phase has lasted for 6 months.

If you look at the last break out of the bottom that has happened in the last few days, you can notice some things:

  • A very important support level has been broken down;
  • A new down trend has emerged from the previous distribution phase;
  • The 200 day moving average has been broken down;
  • The current 3-month cycle started in July and it is about to finish towards October at a lower level that the current one.

 

My forecast of the main stock indices confirms my point of view. You can observe them here.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 21st of August 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nasdaq stock index crash forecast updated on 21st of August 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Italian stock index crash forecast updated on 21st of August 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If I were to suggest you some tactics for the next few months, I would say to stay away from the stock market until the next important bottom. There, an accurate stock picking can give an important return on a portfolio. Be patient.

Nevertheless, you can catch some good trends in the meanwhile. I have suggested some of them to my customers…

There may be a pull back of the S&P 500 index in the next few days, but the fair value of this index seems to be 1970 points about. I do not think that big boys are willing to buy new stocks at this level.

Usually, they have always bought stocks at an undervalued level respect the fair value of the index in the last two 5-year cycle bottoms. I think that it will happen this time too.

Do not forget to share this article with your friends: they will be happy to read it! Keep them informed…

 

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

What the VIX index is telling us about the stock market

 

Dear followers,

I am used to update my home page once per month for you.

New buy volumes in the last bottom of the S&P 500 have confirmed that a new 3-month cycle has just started. I think that it will go up until the end of August at least.

The VIX index is telling us that it has decreasing bottoms. This fact confirms this medium term uptrend of the American stock market.

The famous Greek problem has been fixed now (do you remember that I told you that a solution would have been found?).

Look at the chart of the VIX index below.

 

VIX updated on 17th of July 2015

 

According to my calculi, the fair value of the S&P 500 index is about 2080 points now.

Therefore, I think that this new 3-month cycle will be a run up cycle with a heavy distribution before a new downtrend starts.

Therefore, be prepared for a strong up move.

Great funds have a goal: sell the stocks that they own on the next tops. Period.

I think that this is a good idea that follows my updated forecast of the stock market. Last buy volumes confirm this strategy. They sustain the current value of the S&P 500 and they are not very great.

There is not a great accumulation of new positions in the last weeks.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 17th of July 2015

 

Nasdaq stock index forecast updated on 17th of July 2015

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 17th of July 2015

 

My forecasts tell a story. Everything proceeds as it was planned at the beginning of this yearly cycle. There is no real deviation from the starting scheme.

I have suggested buying some good strong stocks to my customers in the members’ only area to ride this last uptrend of this yearly cycle.

You need to keep in mind that this is not the moment to look for undervalued stocks; this is the moment to buy strong stocks that can become stronger.

A company is like a ball launched down a hill: the stronger its speed, the stronger the speed will become if there are no obstacles during its path.

In other terms: if a company has increasing net profits, its value can increase in acceleration in an expansive economic landscape.

I do not see any real threaten now for an up move of the stock market.

I think that is all for the moment.

Enjoy the summer and this new uptrend.

Do not forget to share this article with your friends: they will be happy to read it! Keep them informed…

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

 

An important bottom of the stock market

 

Welcome back in my website.

As I have said many times, stock indices were approaching a very important bottom both in the United States and in Europe. In this moment, the American stock markets looks stronger than the European one.

While I am writing, “the Greek problem” has been solved in some way, apparently.

If you look at volumes of the etf GREK, you can see that there has been no panic and no huge sell volumes.

The stock market had already discounted such news and operators already had correct pieces of information to act properly. I am not surprised…

Therefore, let us reflect again.

A new 6-month cycle is about to start. Such a thing happens 3 times every year. When this happens, my focus has to be at maximum levels.

I perform an accurate screening of the best stocks to buy in the American market.

First thing first, let me show you my upgraded forecasts of the stock indices.

 

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 19th of June 2015

 

Nasdaq stock index forecast updated on 19th of June 2015

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 19th of June 2015

 

The expected date of the bottom seems to be respected (19th / 22th of June 2015). We will see in the next days what happens.

I am confident that a new cycle has already started in American stock market because I have some good clues.

Look at the chart below and at the red arrows.

 

S&P 500 stock index updated on 19th of June 2015

 

 

These clues are the following:

 

  • Increasing buy volumes;
  • Accumulation overcomes distribution;
  • A new 3-month cycle shows strength;
  • The last 3-month cycle was incredibly long (since February to the half of June 2015, 4.5 months about).

 

Therefore, I continue to look for great stocks to buy.

I wanted to create a report straight to the point this week.

My last advice: I think that the stock market is the place to be for the next few months.

 

Do not forget to share this article with your friends: they will be happy to read it!

This is all for this week.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

  • Fredrick

    Fredrick

    This is MY PERSONAL and OBJECTIVE point of view about American and Indian stock markets.

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    MNST 8.00 129.19 98.6 22/10/14 106 15/12/14
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    OIL 4.00 12.27 11.82 16/04/15
    IYE 1.00 45.38 45 13/04/15
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  • Federico, l have to say that it's very unusual to come across someone that is as open and honest as you are.
    You openly show all your calls including the loses. Such honesty should be rewarded.
    I will continue to follow you and thank you so much for your time and efforts.

    Angela P. (UK)

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    Dear Fredrick you are a very serious and reliable person.
    You have always given to me pieces of advice and information that have revealed very valid.
    What distinguishes you is the seriousness and the love that you use in doing all this.
    Thank you.

    Azzurra Z. (IT)

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    I just happened upon your site in the last few days and am satisfied with your attempt to communicate. I will continue to follow until I see a noticeable lack of "something" like sound advice, logical remarks and well put sentences. Should I notice what I feel are these and other short comings, I will attempt to email you at this address and share my concerns. I know you want to be a success at this and I support your endeavors. Be patient. Asking us for input today, that's a good idea.

    Ben W.

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    Hello Fredrick,
    I happened to bump into your blog and i must tell you that i'm glad i have. I'm an aspiring trader whom wants to develop a trading method like you have since i dont have the time to daytrade....
    I would appreaciated it if you can give me further explanation and i was also wondering if your willing to take me as your apprentice to teach a good strategy like the one you've acquired. I have experience position trading but i need a good foundation like you have. ...
    Thanks in advanced,

    Harley D.

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    Hi Fredrick
    First of all I wanted to thank you for your analysis on the Italian market and the Nasdaq.
    I found your suggestions very helpful and I followed all the signals of the newsletter with great results.
    ...
    Best regards

    Domenico S. (IT)

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    Hello Fredrick, some time has passed and I wanted to write to you to thank you warmly for your weekly counseling about markets.
    I want also to congratulate with you for your forecasts that are always accurate and detailed. My regret is that I have not always followed you.
    While I am saying bye to you, I want to espress my best wishes to you for the great work you are used to do in your website.

    Bye and thanks again.

    Andrea Z.

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