European stress test for banks? Who cares!

Welcome back in my website.

I have read and I have talked about the impact of the last stress test for European banks, recently.

My opinion is: “Who cares! We are traders!”

I mean that we already know that the last bottom is an annual cycle bottom. It is very important and I have bought new stocks recently. I have suggested those stocks to my customers in the private membership area of this website. I think that a new train (trend) is leaving now.

Get on board please.

As regard the stress test cited before, look at the following two charts.

The first chart refers to the Dax index and the second one refers to an American bank (JP Morgan).

They have something in common: what is it? Observe them.

 

DAX INDEX updated on 24th of OCTOBER 2014 with volumes

 

JPM updated on 24th of OCTOBER 2014 with volumes

 

The correct answer is volumes. I mean that institutional investors have entered the stock market recently in the last bottom with a lot of money, as it is an important bottom.

Therefore, if banks all around the world have had serious problems, great investors would have not bought them.

What about the European stress test then? Reflect by yourself…

There is another problem. It is more important.

Has a new intermediate cycle started or a new and a short drawdown is expected? I mean that my forecasts show two possible scenarios: the first one refers to the forecast of the NASDAQ index with an important drawdown of some days, and the other one refers to the Italian forecast with one maybe two days of downtrend.

Look at them here below. I cannot say which of them will take place. Nobody can. Maybe, European indexes will behave in a different way respect American indexes. Maybe they will behave in the same way.

However, I think that this is an important bottom of an annual cycle and it is wise to enter the stock market in whatever way you like.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 24th of OCTOBER 2014

 

NASDAQ stock index forecast updated on 24th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 24th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 24th of OCTOBER 2014

 

This is the most important think for this week. The strongest market keeps on being the Indian one.

Now, a new round of stock picking has just started.

Be careful. Keep on following me.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

 

The current selloff in financial markets

 

Welcome back in my website.

We have had a great selloff in the last two weeks both in American and in European stock markets.

Look at the graphic of the S&P 500 here below.

 

S&P 500 stock index updated on 17th of OCTOBER 2014 with volumes

 

I can observe that something important has changed.

I mean that the long-term support line, drawn from November 2012 to today, has been broken down by the index price. This implies that the long-term economic scenario has changed.

The top September of this index corresponds to the top of this 5-year cycle, very likely.

The downtrend of this 5-year cycle has just started from this moment on.

The second thing that I can notice is the amount of buy volumes in this bottom. They are huge.

I consider them the spy of a great accumulation phase.

Besides this aspect, you can see the following graphic that refers to the etf dealing with long-term Treasury bonds.

A real selloff has just taken place.

 

TMF updated on 17th of OCTOBER 2014 with volumes

 

This means that money is moving heavily from bond markets to stock markets.

I think that even if the long-term trend has turned down in the stock markets, however, a rebound is very likely now.

I suspect that this is the real bottom of a new annual cycle that is about to start. I have considered the bottom of August the starting point of a new annual cycle. Nevertheless, the buy volumes of this last bottom suggest that this is the correct starting point of a new annual cycle, now.

The starting bottom of a new annual cycle is the place where the undervalued level of prices is the greatest. This explains why it is so important to catch them.

Here are their graphics

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 17th of OCTOBER 2014

 

NASDAQ stock index forecast updated on 17th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 17th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 17th of OCTOBER 2014

 

An important rebound of prices is expected for American and European markets. Instead, the Indian market will become stronger and stronger in its present up way.

My sensation is that the current rebound will arrive at the level of September top. I think that it is very unlikeable that it can go besides that level.

I think that this is a good moment to buy stocks. I will work to select them in each of the three markets that I keep under control: S&P 500, NASDAQ and Indian BSE.

I refer both to the most undervalued and to the strongest stocks.

I will inform you.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

 

Stocks to buy in a correction

Welcome back in my website.

I do not know if you have watched closely my forecasts in the last few weeks.

They have helped us to stay out from the market when it was rolling down. They have also helped some of my followers who are short-term traders to catch this drop.

The important thing to remember is that a drop will arrive at its end, first or then.

This end is the final bottom of this 3-month cycle that started in August.

You can see that as soon as I upgrade my forecasts with new data, they learn how to modify, every week.

Someone can say that it should not work that way and that such forecasts should be more stable.

The fact is that the continuous behavior and the forecast of a stock index depend on many factors:

  • The stability of an economic system (= companies keep growing up their profits);
  • The production of M1 that enters real economy ( = the Federal Reserve Bank favors economic expansion);
  • The behavior of big players just like pension funds, for instance (Are they buying or are they selling?).

 

These are the main events that modify the behavior of a stock index.

Therefore, if you want to climb a mountain (stock markets), I think it is better to know what is the main way to do that (forecast), even if that way may modify in some other patterns along the climbing.

Then, we need to wait for some more days to catch good stocks to buy.

Look at the forecasts here.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 10th of OCTOBER 2014

 

NASDAQ stock index forecast updated on 10th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 10th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 10th of OCTOBER 2014

 

Let’s change argument.

One of my followers has asked me: “What stocks to buy in a correction?”

I should say: “Whatever you like, but you need to recognize that other people want to buy it too.”

I mean that, when the price of a stock goes down, it goes far from the fair value of the company, it belongs to. If we can see buy volumes near a bottom, this should mean that there is a bargain.

One of the simplest things to do is to look for stocks that have gone down and that show new accumulation volumes near the bottom. This is an undervalued situation.

What is the exit point?

This is difficult to say. Sometimes, you can sell those stocks again near their fair value some other times you can sell them at a higher level. This depends on the forecasts about the net profits of a company. If I expect that profits of a company worsen, the fair value of that company will decrease.

I have inserted the graphic of Apple here below.

 

aapl stock and fair value

 

Its price went down from October 2012 to April 2013. The fair value of this company decreased and every bottom with high volumes anticipated a rebound.

When in April 2013 volumes were particularly high, the fair value of this company finished going down and it started to go up once again after three months.

The profits of this company started to improve and its fair value grew up again.

I think that this is a clear scheme that you can follow to buy stocks in a down phase.

Look at the behavior of a stock price and compare it to the volumes that take place in each bottom.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

  • Fredrick

    Fredrick

    Welcome into Mystocktobuy website.

    This is MY PERSONAL and OBJECTIVE point of view about American and Indian stock markets.

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  • STRONG STOCKS FREE ADVISORY 2014 (FEW DAYS DELAYED)

    Ticker
    % Gain/loss
    Current price
    Buy price
    Buy date
    Sell price
    Sell date
    AFOP 5 / 17.32 21/04/14 18.1 13/05/14
    SPCB -7 11.6 9 27/05/14 8.33 18/07/14
    TRIP -4 94.29 98.5 30/05/14 94.5 01/08/14
    FB -3 76.8 65.77 11/06/14 64 09/07/14
    DXCM -4 40.45 37.4 17/06/14 36 09/07/14
    GILD 23 105.47 85.47 02/07/14 104.9 02/10/14
    LUV 3 34.15 27.2 02/07/15 28 08/08/14
    PFPT -12 38.45 39.4 02/07/16 34.65 08/07/14
    AMZN -5 324.5 337.5 07/07/14 320.4 29/07/14
    UEIC -2 50.38 54.15 15/08/14 53.04 15/09/14
    AMSG -7 50.2 53.9 02/09/14 50 23/09/14

  • STRONG STOCKS PAID ADVISORY SERVICE 2014 (FEW DAYS DELAYED)

    Ticker
    % Gain/loss
    Current price
    Buy price
    Buy date
    Sell price
    Sell date
    RFMD711.7510.922/07/1411.723/09/14
    SWKS-158.5354.419/08/145416/09/14
    CDW-430.5732.919/08/1431.705/09/14
    MSFT246.444519/08/1445.702/10/14
    AAPL0100.7599.619/08/1499.1526/09/14
    SAVE-270.2871.819/08/1470.415/09/14
    PFG25352.119/08/1453.2126/09/14
    INTC-334.935.122/08/1434.1526/09/14
    BDSI1317.614.3826/08/1416.302/10/14
    NFLX-6449.56478.526/08/1445016/09/14
    NDAQ-442.3543.5526/08/144226/09/14
    FNHC-426.8924.802/09/1423.723/09/14
    PPC-730.7632.3417/09/1430.1726/09/14
    GLNG-671.257117/09/1466.701/10/14
  • MOST UNDERVALUED STOCKS BOUGHT AND SUGGESTED IN 2014 (1 MONTH DELAY)

    Ticker
    % Gain/loss
    Current price
    Buy price
    Buy date
    Sell price
    Sell date
    DO -9 41.33 51.41 25/04/14 46.96 05/06/14
    TFM -14 / 37.41 02/05/14 32 07/05/14
    ADT 2 36.26 32.85 27/05/14 33.48 09/07/14
    MNTA -8 11.26 12.7 28/05/14 11.71 27/06/14
    CTCM -6 9.59 10.61 30/05/14 10 25/07/14
    HERO -13 3.18 4.8 13/06/14 4.18 24/06/14
    CSOD -7 39.96 44.6 19/06/14 41.6 09/07/14
    ANSS 3 81.55 77.75 07/07/14 80.4 10/09/14

  • Federico, l have to say that it's very unusual to come across someone that is as open and honest as you are.
    You openly show all your calls including the loses. Such honesty should be rewarded.
    I will continue to follow you and thank you so much for your time and efforts.

    Angela P. (UK)

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Dear Fredrick you are a very serious and reliable person.
    You have always given to me pieces of advice and information that have revealed very valid.
    What distinguishes you is the seriousness and the love that you use in doing all this.
    Thank you.

    Azzurra Z. (IT)

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    I just happened upon your site in the last few days and am satisfied with your attempt to communicate. I will continue to follow until I see a noticeable lack of "something" like sound advice, logical remarks and well put sentences. Should I notice what I feel are these and other short comings, I will attempt to email you at this address and share my concerns. I know you want to be a success at this and I support your endeavors. Be patient. Asking us for input today, that's a good idea.

    Ben W.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Hello Fredrick,
    I happened to bump into your blog and i must tell you that i'm glad i have. I'm an aspiring trader whom wants to develop a trading method like you have since i dont have the time to daytrade....
    I would appreaciated it if you can give me further explanation and i was also wondering if your willing to take me as your apprentice to teach a good strategy like the one you've acquired. I have experience position trading but i need a good foundation like you have. ...
    Thanks in advanced,

    Harley D.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Hi Fredrick
    First of all I wanted to thank you for your analysis on the Italian market and the Nasdaq.
    I found your suggestions very helpful and I followed all the signals of the newsletter with great results.
    ...
    Best regards

    Domenico S. (IT)

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Hello Fredrick, some time has passed and I wanted to write to you to thank you warmly for your weekly counseling about markets.
    I want also to congratulate with you for your forecasts that are always accurate and detailed. My regret is that I have not always followed you.
    While I am saying bye to you, I want to espress my best wishes to you for the great work you are used to do in your website.

    Bye and thanks again.

    Andrea Z.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

  • INTERESTING ARTICLES AND VIDEOS THAT I HAVE ADDED:

    '
    1. An interesting article of cycle theory:

    Walter Bressert cycle theory

    2. Extracts from Gann's books about cycles:

    Gann cycle theory

    3. One video I have recorded about APPLE stock

    Where to buy Apple stock

    4. One video I have recorded about RIMM Nasdaq stock

    RIMM price stock behaviour

  • SOME MORE RESOURCES FOR YOUR TRADING ACTIVITY

    '
    1. The broker I use, very good and cheap:

    Tradeking

    2. The trading software I use to have a professional analysis of the stock market; very good, easy to be programmed and quick:

    Amibroker Trading Software

    3. My book shop. All the books I need to keep on learning and profiting in financial markets:

    My Book Shop

  • Important: 10 questions and 10 answers about stocks

    Read the linked article by clicking on the yellow question mark

    Read the linked article by clicking on the yellow question mark

  • Funny gadjects… Enjoy!

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