Interest rates are going lower and lower

Welcome back in my website.

Last week, I said that I was waiting for a tiny correction of the stock markets.

This correction has taken place in a weak market like the Italian one (and other European week markets) and I think that it will take place in American markets in the next few days.

Remember that a 30-day cycle is arriving to its end for a date between the 20th and the 30th of November 2014.

I will wait until that minimum before giving new buy signals.

Let us look at my index forecasts.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 14th of November 2014

 

Nasdaq stock index forecast updated on 14th of November 2014

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 14th of November 2014

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 14th of November 2014

 

I think that they are self-explaining. Stock market is about to go up after a short time correction. The stronger a market is, the shorter the correction will be (Indian market for instance).

I want to talk about interest rates this week because they are going lower and lower both in United States and in Europe. I want to talk about the 10-year Treasury note interest rate, in particular.

Here is its graphic.

 

10 year T bond interest rate updated on 14th of November 2014

 

Even if the stock market (S&P 500) has increased in value from June 2014 on, its speed of growth has lowered down. On the contrary, the speed of reduction of the value of the previous cited interest rate has increased. What does this mean? This means that the S&P 500 is overvalued at this level of price and from June 2014 on, a lot of money has left the stock market and it was invested in bonds.

I think that the last rally of the S&P 500 will go on until December of this year and then …. we will see what is going to happen.

Even if this is my long-term view, however, I suggested buying few very selected stocks in American and Indian markets, recently.

You can see the results in the tables post in the right column here.

Just to cite some few examples:

  • MNST: +10% (S&P 500 – for free members);
  • ABBV: +5% (S&P 500 – for paid membership);
  • MAR: +5% (S&P 500 – for paid membership);
  • BO: +26% (Sensex – for paid membership).

 

You can read here what I mean: read here.

Stay connected with me. Something very interesting is about to happen in the next few weeks.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

This trend is up because there are no sale volumes yet

Welcome back in my website.

Recently, we have understood that a new annual cycle has started in the middle of October 2014.

You have seen good volumes of accumulation in that period.

I do not see sale volumes on this top yet.

If I consider the S&P 500 index, this concept is self-explaining.

 

S&P 500 stock index updated on 7th of November 2014

 

As you can see, there are no sale volumes in place yet.

The 18-day momentum tells us that the S&P 500 is in an overbought area.

However, the Conjunction Indicator suggests that there is no shift of money now between the stock market and the bond market. Money that has entered the stock market in the middle of October is still there.

This reasoning indicates that the current trend in American stock market is still up.

This uptrend is even stronger for the Indian Sensex index.

As regards the European stock markets, we can divide them into two groups: the stronger ones (German, English markets etc.) and weak ones (Italian, Greek markets etc.).

Look at their forecasts here below.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 7th of November 2014

 

nasdaq stock index forecast updated on 7th of November 2014

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 7th of November 2014

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 7th of November 2014

 

Those markets that are stronger now, will become stronger in the near future.

You can observe another thing for all these indices. A little downtrend movement is expected for the next few days.

In fact, a 15-day cycle is arriving to its end. A new 15-day cycle will start from that moment on and the current uptrend will continue.

There is no change in the tactics used so far to face the stock market.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

Just follow the money and you will win in financial markets

Welcome back in my website.

There are only two things that I need to say, this week:

  1. My graphic forecast for international indices has worked well enough in the last few weeks and they continue to show how it should   look in the near future. They are very reliable;
  2. A new annual cycle has just started with great volumes and I think that the current uptrend will be important.

 

Let us consider my four upgraded forecasts.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 31st of OCTOBER 2014

 

NASDAQ stock index forecast updated on 31st of OCTOBER 2014

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 31st of OCTOBER 2014

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 31st of OCTOBER 2014

 

Both the American indexes keep on growing up. The NASDAQ index is the stronger between the two, now.

As regards the European stock indexes, they look to be strong enough (the Italian one, in particular).

Indian stock index keeps on surprising me. I think it will be one of the strongest stock index all over the world in the next weeks.

You have seen many buy volumes in the bottoms that took place in October the 15th.

I consider those volumes accumulation volumes for the medium term. This means that there will be an uptrend for at least two months ahead, very likely.

As regards volumes, there is another interesting thing that has made me to reflect about the greatness of the current uptrend. Two huge carry trades for the cross USDJPY and EURJPN.

Let us see their graphics.

 

carry trade USDJPY updated on 3th of November 2014

 

carry trade EURJPY updated on 3th of November 2014

 

Their meaning is the following. Great hedge funds and pension funds have gone heavily in debt recently in Japanese Yen and they have bought American and European assets (stocks) with that money, recently.

In fact, not only the Yen is under constant depreciation (new printing of M1), but also the cost of a money loan in yen is very cheap.

When I see such operations, I think that something great is about to happen. I think that the current uptrend both in European and in America stock markets can be very good.

Look at the graphics below to understand what I mean.

 

M1 Bank of Japan updated September 2014

 

Japaneese loan rate

 

The previous graphics show the present behavior of BOJ with JPY. I do not want to add any comment. They are self explaining.

I have suggested some stocks to my customers in my private members area, recently (link!!!).

They are performing well.

I think that it is the moment to be in the stock market now. It does not matter if a person live in United States, in Europe, in India or elsewhere. Just be there.

I believe in a saying that refers to financial markets: “Follow the money and you will discover the trend”.

It is simple but it is effective. Simplicity is the corner stone of my method.

If you are interested in knowing more, you can visit my related page (BEST STOCKS TO BUY).

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

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