ETF analysis of American stock indices

Welcome back in my website.

Many stock indices look like to have almost arrived near to their tops.

However, they have not arrived yet.

I want to show you an ETF analysis of the American stock indices to understand what is happening in the stock market.

Let us look at the following etf: QQQ.

I do not see meaningful sell volumes in the last top, yet.

 

QQQ updated on 27th of February 2015

 

At the same time, if I look at the QID graphic, I do not see meaningful buy volumes for this inverse ETF in the last bottom, yet.

I mean that there are no new volumes for the beginning of a new intermediate cycle. The current intermediate cycle has started in point A and it will finish in point B about.

 

QID updated on 27th of February 2015

 

Therefore, the supposed top of the American stock indices expected for the middle of March 2015, is very likely to take place. This concept is expressed my usual forecasts.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 27th of February 2015

 

Nasdaq stock index forecast updated on 27th of February 2015

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 27th of February 2015

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 27th of February 2015

 

This implies that the current uptrend goes on. I think that I will see some signals of weakness by these indices in few weeks. I will keep you informed.

As regards stocks, my last FREE buy signal (CEMP) performed very well. This position is up 7.8 % since the 19th of February. Continue to follow me.

That is all for the moment.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

Stock market today USA

Welcome back in my website.

My question is the following: how will the USA stock market behave today?

I think to the day of today, but at the same time, I think to the stock market in the near future.

According to my forecasts, a downturn may happen.

I have explained that the FED keeps printing new money and its effect on the stock market is an increase in value.

The datum of M1 of January 2015 (2924.2) is higher than the datum of December 2014 (2907.3).

This correspond to an increase of 0.58%. It is not too much, but it has helped both economy and the USA stock market to increase in value. That value is very close to the average of the previous months.

We do not know yet what the FED has done during this month of February, unfortunately.

 

My updated forecast of the stock markets look like these ones.

 

stock market today usa

 

American stock index today

 

Sensex stock index today

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 20th of February 2015

 

 

If I analyze the S&P 500 for instance, I can see good volumes of accumulation in the last bottom.

A good uptrend has started from that bottom.

Look at the Conjunction Indicator that is below the graphic of the S&P 500. This indicator shows the contemporary behavior of both the S&P 500 and the Treasury bond market. I do not see any great movement about volumes that makes me to think of an imminent trend reversal. However, let us pay continuous attention.

 

USA stock index nowadays

 

The only shift that I see consists of a decrease of volumes in this phase (look at my red arrow). Can it mean that we are close to this 30-day cycle top? Yes, you can bet! However, I do not see any spike of volumes yet, even if this index is near its “top”.

For this reason, I suggest you to pay particular attention now. Nevertheless, this trend is still upward.

Last, but not least, I am particularly happy.

In fact, the last FREE buy signal for a stock sent to my followers, CEMP, has proved to be well profitable.

This is a copy of my email sent to them, on 19th of February.

 

email for CEMP buy signal

 

The suggested buy price was at the open (I consider I to be 28.75 $ per share).

Today’s close price is about 30.6 $ per share.

We have had a + 6.4% of gain in few days. I think that it is a good FREE signal, as today is the 23th of February 2015.

Therefore, the question is not what the USA stock market will do today or tomorrow.

My forecasts suggest a point of view that has be confirmed by current data.

The problem is not only to find out good bargains, but also to trade them and to keep the trading risk involved low. This is what I call selection. I want to find out few good stocks that can have a good increase of their value with a low risk.

Will we see some shrinking signals of the S&P 500 in the next few weeks? Who knows!

However, we are prepared to face them by the means of cycles and of other instruments.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

Is the stock market crash about to arrive in 2015?

Welcome back in my website.

For many weeks, I have been saying that the American stock market was ready to crash.

I do not change my point of view, because the American indices are facing their 5-year cycle top.

However, they will not go down until “somebody” wants that they go down.

I want to be more detailed in my description.

I know that my forecasts are based on an historical and a statistical interpretation of the past. They help me to understand where a stock market trend is very likely to go. They are helpful for such a reason.

However, they are statistical models that keep on learning every day from current facts and movements that can modify the expected behavior of the indices. They are auto-adaptive instruments.

So, what has changed recently that has made them to modify their view?

Look at the graphic below, updated to January 2015: it represents the printing of new money by the FED. It is unstoppable.

Here is the link.

 

This means that the more money is printed, the higher a stock market will go. This is mathematics; it is not an opinion of mine.

I have demonstrated this fact many times in the past (for example, watch this video).

Therefore, how have my forecasts been modified by this new flux of money?

Here are my upgraded forecasts.

 

S&P 500 stock index forecast updated on 13th of February 2015

 

Nasdaq stock index forecast updated on 13th of February 2015

 

As you can see, there is a continuous push of new money that brings stock market higher and higher, maybe with no rest.

You can understand that this “game” is manipulated, but I like it. It is worth it. It rewards both my mind and my wallet.

Somebody may think: “What is the best trading system to play this game then?”

I think that it consists of knowing what the FED will do in the next few months in advance. It is simple. This would be perfect. However, as we do not know what such an institution will do, we have (you and me) to be flexible as we are traders.

When I observe a stock index, I want to have an idea of where it is likely to go. Nevertheless, if I am wrong, I want to have an alternative strategy to follow. For such a reason I have suggested to buy some strong stocks to my customers recently.

A trend follower trader is a follower of a trend that has reasonably shown a new start. He is not an anticipator of anything. Look at the following graphic for instance.

It consists of the VIX index that has just broken down a triangular figure of congestion. This should imply that the stock market would be upward for the next weeks.

 

VIX updated on 13th of FEBRUARY 2015

 

Here are the other forecast index graphics.

 

Sensex stock index forecast updated on 13th of February 2015

 

Italian stock index forecast updated on 13th of February 2015

 

The conclusive thought of mine is the following: the more a market is nourished with new money, the higher it will go.

As trend follower trades, we have to be ready for everything. We have to look for strong stocks that have had good accumulation volumes and that show the willingness to grow in price.

I will send a new buy signal for a good stock to buy to my followers in the next days, if something good takes place.

I think that that’s all for this week.

Do not forget to share this post with your friends in social media. They will be happy. You can find all the buttons here below.

Kind regards,

Fredrick

 

  • Fredrick

    Fredrick

    This is MY PERSONAL and OBJECTIVE point of view about American and Indian stock markets.

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  • STRONG AMERICAN STOCKS – FREE FINANCIAL ADVICE 2014 (FEW DAYS DELAYED)

    Ticker % Gain/loss Current price Buy price Buy date Sell price Sell date
    MNST 8.00 139.54 98.6 22/10/14 106 15/12/14
    ANAC -1.00 45.66 34.5 02/12/14 34 15/12/14
    EQR -1.00 76.84 78.5 15/01/15 77.59 02/02/15
    CEMP 13.99 32.67 28.75 19/02/15

  • STRONG AMERICAN STOCKS – PAID FINANCIAL ADVICE 2014 (1 MONTH DELAYED)

    Ticker% Gain/lossCurrent priceBuy priceBuy dateSell priceSell date  
    AKRX19.9951.1942.720/01/15
    ICUI-3.0088.586.520/01/1583.502/02/15
    DENN2.0011.5110.7815/01/1511.0404/02/15
    IBKR9.0032.633023/01/15
    ISLE-3.0012.6810.623/01/1510.302/02/15
    AAL-6.9948.9555.623/01/1551.529/01/15
    AIV-2.0037.440.523/01/1539.7002/02/15
    DF-6.9916.2919.523/01/1518.202/02/15
    KIM-1.0025.892823/01/1527.602/02/15
    NVAX9.008.838.0806/02/15
    FTNT3.0033.6932.7812/02/15
  • MOST UNDERVALUED AMERICAN STOCKS – PAID FINANCIAL ADVICE 2014 (1 MONTH DELAY)

    Ticker % Gain/loss Current price Buy price Buy date Sell price Sell date
    ADT 2.0 36.26 32.85 27/05/14 33.479999999999997 09/07/14

  • STRONG INDIAN STOCKS – FREE FINANCIAL ADVICE 2014 (FEW DAYS DELAYED)

    Ticker % Gain/loss Current price Buy price Buy date Sell price Sell date
    PCJEWELLER.BO -3.00 265.45 248 30/10/14 240 25/11/14
    SKSMICRO.BO -4.00 447.65 469.45 19/01/15 450 27/01/15
    HCLTECH.BO 0 2035.95 2030 19/02/15

  • STRONG INDIAN STOCKS – PAID FINANCIAL ADVICE 2014 (1 MONTH DELAYED)

    Ticker % Gain/loss Current price Buy price Buy date Sell price Sell date
    TRF.BO 12.00 376.3 334 06/11/14 375 16/12/14
    KPIT.BO -2.00 215.4 215 20/01/15 210 02/02/15
    GDL.BO 5.00 415.1 372 19/01/15 390 05/02/15
    BHARATFORG.BO 25 1265.65 1015 19/01/15
    MARICO.BO 6.00 383.1 361 23/01/15

  • Federico, l have to say that it's very unusual to come across someone that is as open and honest as you are.
    You openly show all your calls including the loses. Such honesty should be rewarded.
    I will continue to follow you and thank you so much for your time and efforts.

    Angela P. (UK)

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    Dear Fredrick you are a very serious and reliable person.
    You have always given to me pieces of advice and information that have revealed very valid.
    What distinguishes you is the seriousness and the love that you use in doing all this.
    Thank you.

    Azzurra Z. (IT)

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    I just happened upon your site in the last few days and am satisfied with your attempt to communicate. I will continue to follow until I see a noticeable lack of "something" like sound advice, logical remarks and well put sentences. Should I notice what I feel are these and other short comings, I will attempt to email you at this address and share my concerns. I know you want to be a success at this and I support your endeavors. Be patient. Asking us for input today, that's a good idea.

    Ben W.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Hello Fredrick,
    I happened to bump into your blog and i must tell you that i'm glad i have. I'm an aspiring trader whom wants to develop a trading method like you have since i dont have the time to daytrade....
    I would appreaciated it if you can give me further explanation and i was also wondering if your willing to take me as your apprentice to teach a good strategy like the one you've acquired. I have experience position trading but i need a good foundation like you have. ...
    Thanks in advanced,

    Harley D.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Hi Fredrick
    First of all I wanted to thank you for your analysis on the Italian market and the Nasdaq.
    I found your suggestions very helpful and I followed all the signals of the newsletter with great results.
    ...
    Best regards

    Domenico S. (IT)

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Hello Fredrick, some time has passed and I wanted to write to you to thank you warmly for your weekly counseling about markets.
    I want also to congratulate with you for your forecasts that are always accurate and detailed. My regret is that I have not always followed you.
    While I am saying bye to you, I want to espress my best wishes to you for the great work you are used to do in your website.

    Bye and thanks again.

    Andrea Z.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

  • INTERESTING ARTICLES AND VIDEOS THAT I HAVE ADDED:

    '
    1. An interesting article of cycle theory:

    Walter Bressert cycle theory

    2. Extracts from Gann's books about cycles:

    Gann cycle theory

    3. One video I have recorded about APPLE stock

    Where to buy Apple stock

    4. One video I have recorded about RIMM Nasdaq stock

    RIMM price stock behaviour

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